A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
